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Elon Musk Predicts Artificial General Intelligence In 2 Years – Here’s Why That’s Hype


Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) In 2 Years?

Just this week, Elon Musk predicted this.

Here’s Why That’s Hype

You know how I like a counter cyclical argument from time to time 😉. . . .

Eric Siegel, AI consultant, Founder of Machine Learning Week, bestselling author and former Columbia University Professor makes very cogent arguments in his latest Forbes article below, worth a read if you are in AI and GenAI discussions, planning or implementation.

Since the day the term was coined, Artificial Intelligence has faced an identity crisis. It’s stubbornly nebulous, so proponents continually perform the awkward dance he calls “the AI Shuffle”.

He argues that the best way out of this predicament would be to drop the term AI entirely (outside of philosophy and science fiction) and stick with Machine Learning, a well-defined, proven technology. But AI has become a powerful brand, riding strong on tremendous momentum.

Reports of the human mind’s looming obsolescence have been greatly exaggerated. 

Just because computers will soon potentially equal the human brain’s sheer computational power quantitively, that doesn’t necessarily equate to the qualitative development needed to stand up to the brain’s functions. 

Today’s AI systems only accomplish narrow, well-defined tasks. For example, Predictive AI or enterprise machine learning, draws statistical analysis from data to improve large-scale business operations, such as credit, collections, invoice ingestion, marketing, fraud detection, risk management etc. And Generative AI creates drafts of writing, code, imagery, video and music.

In contrast, since AGI would be as generally capable as humans, across all jobs, including the performance of AI research itself, the implications are as fascinating as they would be earth-shattering. But we already have plenty of problems with Machine Learning already in promoting false and harmful narratives (just take a look at the recent Senate hearings with social media companies).

There are also clear conflicts of interest in the news attention and stock price surges on the back of announcements about AGI “coming soon”.  If you are raising money or trying to boost your stock this is a great tactic – for Elon at Tesla and the folks at OpenAI, Microsoft, Google DeepMind, Nvidia, Meta etc . . .

Eric argues that the false promise of creating AGI within mere decades leads to poor planning, incurs great cost, gravely misinforms the public and misguides legislation.

You can read Eric’s article in Forbes here . . .  It is an important read for anyone trying to get a balanced view or involved in any transformation planning or management, be it business, organisation, digital or business process focused . . .

Thanks for reading . . . .