A few weeks ago, I wrote about something called “FOFU” (an understandable professional fear) and how it affects us all in an increasingly fast-moving and complex world.

And this week the related topic of “Uncertainty” has come up numerous times, as perhaps one of the root causes of “FOFU”.

I attended the Boardwave Live event on Wednesday in London, a community of leaders of European technology “scale-ups”. Amongst the excellent talks and panel discussions was one that I missed due to having to be in the two places at the same time! (a common occurrence for us all, I know 😉).

“Mastering Uncertainty”, a talk by Sam Conniff, author of “Be More Pirate” (don’t ask!) received rave reviews from some friends and leaders that I respect (you know who you are . . .).

I looked into Sam’s work on “Uncertainty Tolerance” and his various talks on YouTube and even a TV documentary called “Uncertainty Experts”, all of which resonated with me.

I suspect we have all grown up believing and priding ourselves in the idea that an expanding scope of reason, knowledge and expertise leads to greater certainty.

Think about that for a minute . . .

As we develop early in our careers we aim to become subject matter experts in relatively narrow, silo domains. Ironically, we later learn that these silos themselves are dangerous, and risk narrow thinking without broader context. That is a segue into an “End to End” discussion . . 

As our careers evolve, our roles develop on broader themes where we cannot hope to be subject matter expert of all.

It turns out that Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, urges their leaders to shift from a “know-it-all” to a “learn-it-all” mindset.

Steve Rudderham commented on the nuance and dichotomy of job role expertise this week. I paraphrase his attempted description of his job to his mother  (don’t try this at home 😉), that it is “part diplomat, part firefighter, part teacher, part builder, part magician, part engineer and part choreographer”.

We are in an ever more uncertain world, moving ever faster. .

We seek out certainty even while we are pursuing ever greater results from probabilistic (uncertain), rather than deterministic (certain) approaches to business problems. That is an interesting cognitive dissonance. More on that another day!

It reminds me also of the Dunning Kruger curve, which demonstrates that our belief in simplistic, plausible certainty is alive and well and causing plenty of challenges in our businesses . .

I was further fascinated by the serendipity (another force of uncertainty) of an HBR article on the same topic this week!

“6 Strategies for Leading Through Uncertainty”

“Leaders often report feeling stuck, ill-equipped, or overwhelmed as they face the growing challenges of their roles and the need to manage multiple stakeholders.”

 Whilst targeted at academia the authors, Rebecca Zucker and Darin Rowell, comment “it’s easy to feel overwhelmed when the complexity of our world has surpassed our “complexity of mind”.  

They describe 6 strategies that are worth acting on;

1. Embrace the discomfort of not knowing
   • It is not a threat
2. Distinguish between complicated and complex
   • “Complex” reflects an environment or system made up of many different and interconnected parts.
   • “Complicated” reflects the difficulty or struggle to understand, solve, manage or execute.
3. Let go of perfectionism
   • Maybe a source of “FOFU” that allows us to identify and acknowledge the specific core fears such as “I’ll fail,” “I’ll look bad,” or “I’ll make the wrong decision.”
4. Resist oversimplifications and quick conclusions
   • A necessary “bias for action” can result in frustration when facing challenges that don’t present an immediately evident solution and clear course of action. Dunning Kruger influence perhaps?
5. Don’t go it alone
   • Avoid that sense of isolation and cultivate the practice of intentionally reaching out to your network and beyond for insight and perspective. (You have been warned! Expect a call 😉).
6. “Zoom out”
   • Deep immersion in specific challenges can result in “Inside-Out” thinking around the mechanics of the situation. “Zooming out,” or moving from “the dance floor to the balcony,” can provide a broader perspective and a systemic view of the issues and can shine a light on unexamined assumptions that would otherwise not be visible. This is “Outside-In” thinking. “Think like a Customer” and “Think like a CFO”.

These seem to me to be both great stress-buster techniques (I even feel calm writing about it!) as well as excellent strategies for managing uncertainty.

Maybe stress and uncertainty are related?

“We cannot control the degree of change, uncertainty, and complexity we face. However, adopting effective strategies can improve our ability to continually learn, grow, and more effectively navigate the increasing complexity of our world.”

You can read more in “6 Strategies for Leading Through Uncertainty” from HBR here . . .

Thanks for reading . . .